Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 12.421715 14.497488 16.764230 19.416835 22.429075 25.736447 29.635589
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 9.002085 11.779913 15.116113 19.387904 24.678994 30.981762 39.018404
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.555585 9.502635 13.351559 18.676483 25.770944 34.806662 47.078457
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.960196 7.884358 11.998750 18.087577 26.720197 38.348035 54.982055
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.030780 6.953548 11.343578 18.228233 28.516366 43.035484 64.710771
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.245024 6.051814 10.534931 17.953359 29.583677 46.699625 73.238974
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.871515 5.727217 10.533806 18.854399 32.427893 53.101200 86.157037
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.474269 5.272811 10.230405 19.193562 34.379052 58.267863 97.577721
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.108337 4.796220 9.801600 19.238282 35.812920 62.695122 108.135469
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.807765 4.381454 9.409675 19.273827 37.195574 67.099485 118.916853
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.716375 4.377450 9.779045 20.713159 41.111110 75.903919 137.355341
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.580954 4.249843 9.883579 21.656026 44.209714 83.534280 154.319854
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.435285 4.079940 9.897436 22.463664 47.209085 91.339573 172.329210
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.223625 3.707832 9.433662 22.270283 48.332075 95.980793 185.302988
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.998594 3.245828 8.694897 21.408253 48.071161 98.113880 194.032270
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.823685 2.869577 8.082540 20.722896 48.068328 100.684493 203.670486
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.722449 2.674143 7.864847 20.873002 49.764108 106.529831 219.602107
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.613627 2.425250 7.469638 20.560443 50.449714 110.472964 232.228515
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.576743 2.394308 7.630622 21.573207 54.056064 120.329584 256.541619
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.518545 2.276160 7.537536 21.954207 56.300743 127.611046 276.303872
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.455866 2.123798 7.323146 22.004316 57.803902 133.485897 293.655635
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.401015 1.982946 7.116124 22.044218 59.280187 139.388622 311.372716
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.396627 2.036730 7.494629 23.661861 64.559595 153.502060 346.143025